KEY CONCEPTS:

BLACK SWANS 黑天鹅

At its simplest, are events rare, carry aggregate impact, and lie outside our field of observation. They are, in short, unexpected game changers. The following are some examples of such events: Numerous Ethnonationalist Clashes (Free Market Democratic Reforms within a Market-Dominant Minority contingency), the 1998/2008 Financial Crisis (the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula), F-35 Budget Overrun, China's PM Levels, 9/11 (And ISIS), Black Carbon & the Totten Glacier, the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami (Fukushima), and Jackson Hole 2005, Runnable Liability Debt Ratios to Monetary Base,WET Markets China,Vietnam, i.e. COVID 19

(Note: The examples above serve as both reference for breeding grounds in themselves and illustrative events).

MAN MADE COMPLEX SYSTEMS:

Global industrial expansion has become an intrinsic part of the phenomena "Globalization" and materially complex societies. This arena is defined by an internationalized economy set in both a linear and non linear space where causal links are both masked and increasingly more complex. An intensification and integration of complex systems where none are excluded. In this, a turning and tottering of layers, an amplifier effect of tipping points breeds uncertainty, fragility, and vulnerability. "Globalization" has become a wage of warp and weft in formal systems where unexpected downturns are difficult to absorb.

HOW WE CAN FAIL:

Disruption and delay are common occurrences in complex driven systems. These trends translate as negative exposures and can eventually lead to a loss in positive outcomes. Momentum can cascade into a state of dysfunction where overriding objectives become untenable. Our aim is to bridge backstops and strengths through creative metacognition techniques where robust attributes will thrive.

APPROACH:

The theoretical framework used is a hot pot of conceptual composites established by historical, philosophical, and financial traditions. These principles in play drive the tools used in Risk Avoidance Protocols. These methods stress a more inductive analysis in human activities generally ignored by standard analytical tools. Essentially this means, a more nonlinear asymmetrical analytical approach. This re-direction in attention elevates decision advantages to catch more positive outcomes in areas affecting operational flexibility

by detecting intersecting patterns of fragility while also working toward a metaview of all activity patterns. A gentle disjunct, a cognitive disjunct at "strategic points of inflection" where contextual mapping is reconsidered. This is achieved by vetting exposures for both positive symmetries and harmful ones to bolster strategy forumlation.

(Avoiding Erkenntnis October 7th, 1930-Berlin Group)

Our end point is to avoid to the greatest possible extent harm from assessment errors and limited exposure. It is critical to forge a large line of axes where counterpoints are made visible through a syncretic blending of metalevel and inductive analyses where meta-analogies map an "a priori" context of unknowns. The output is gains- gains in identifying negative exposures and compensating with a robust incline of core competencies.

SERVICES:

An international subcontractor service working to elevate success in your global activities. The geographical proxies examined include, but not limited to, diverse synergy arrangements spanning Western Europe, East Asia, North America, and Japan.